Market Direction for Euro/USD

[Android]

I have been following this pair for some time. Regardless of any news or technical analysis, it seems to channel between 1.2500 and 1.2900.

I'm looking for a validation/opinion from the experts that Since it is now at around 1.2500, do you agree that the next direction (I mean staring today) is up towards 1.2900.

Android.

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[DrForex]

Originally Posted by Android

I have been following this pair for some time. Regardless of any news or technical analysis, it seems to channel between 1.2500 and 1.2900.

I'm looking for a validation/opinion from the experts that Since it is now at around 1.2500, do you agree that the next direction (I mean staring today) is up towards 1.2900.

The one thing you can know about currency market volatility: Every day prices stay range bound is one day closer to a breakout of the range. It is one of few certainties in the market ... it will leave the range. Especially technical analysis arguments from momentum players will punt a southward break (not will, have been, since we came down below 1.2700).

While you may be right and I may differ from you and may also be right there seems to be an underlying dynamic of larger ranges than the recent 400 point range you refer to over multi month periods.

I would say it is 50 / 50 if there will be a return to the higher end of the range with super resistance around 1.2700+ or first a decent move further south to around 1.2350 at least. Although the latter would be a very visible break of the current range it will not be viewed by most larger time frame market participants as significant and an indication of a new sustained dollar bull market.

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[Android]

I also noticed yesterday that the COT data from last Tuesday (as reported on Friday) indicates the commercials were less short.

That would indicate upward movement.

Do any of the experts here follow the COT data. If so, would you interpret it the same way?

Android.

Originally Posted by DrForex

The one thing you can know about currency market volatility: Every day prices stay range bound is one day closer to a breakout of the range. It is one of few certainties in the market ... it will leave the range. Especially technical analysis arguments from momentum players will punt a southward break (not will, have been, since we came down below 1.2700).

While you may be right and I may differ from you and may also be right there seems to be an underlying dynamic of larger ranges than the recent 400 point range you refer to over multi month periods.

I would say it is 50 / 50 if there will be a return to the higher end of the range with super resistance around 1.2700+ or first a decent move further south to around 1.2350 at least. Although the latter would be a very visible break of the current range it will not be viewed by most larger time frame market participants as significant and an indication of a new sustained dollar bull market.

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[DrForex]

Originally Posted by Android

I also noticed yesterday that the COT data from last Tuesday (as reported on Friday) indicates the commercials were less short.

That would indicate upward movement.

Do any of the experts here follow the COT data. If so, would you interpret it the same way?

Android.

The problem with the COT data is firstly the time delay (Tuesday close to Monday (late Friday)) and secondly the subjective interpretation of what it means TODAY - considering that most of the trading for the next week's data are already behind us. (Unless significant last minute adjustments happen on Tuesdays. This is something I started to check recently and sofar there is no reason to suspect that the COT data is some magic signal.)

People who put themselves out as COT data experts interpret the last week's adjustment in euro longs (less eur longs) as euro negative. They have also called a turn in JPY since first records made a few weeks ago, but this is still making new records.

Personally I need some convincing in realtime that this is an advanced indicator for spot market action. It is however a factor that does shape some interpretations and therefore one can use it in your repertoire of self-delusion ... an unfortunate necessity for forex traders.

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[15jeff]

Today's expected trading range is between 1.3065 and 1.2870. Break under 1.2870 may lead to further decreasing scenario with test of 1.2750. The CCI indicator is about to cross up the 100 line on the 4 hour chart, suggesting potential increasing pressure.
Technical resistance levels: 1.3065 1.3180 1.3300
Technical support levels: 1.2870 1.2750 1.2635

Trading range: 1.2965 - 1.2900
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.2952 SL 1.2982 TP 1.2912

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[15jeff]

EURO/USD made the upward rise towards close of US session to slide again today. From the high of 1.3438 it is predictable to move to 1.3223 throughout European session and then move upward again throughout US session to 1.34 areas. Wide range swings are to prevail till mid week. Quick drops below low 1.3331 are buy opportunities to book profit during quick rise.

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[YES]

Hi! First time poster but long time reader. Go easy on me! I'm a new poster but I'm a very seasoned trader. I'm getting sick and tired of this Eurozone contagion. One minute everything is dire, the next minute everybody seems to completely forget about the mess, yet in reality nothing has changed; just a mere focus!

With the SNB intervention and buying up of Euros, we have a strong player who will be underpinning the value of the Euro, therefore chances are we'll be ranging for a while from here.

[YES]

Yep; I definitely think this Euro looks heavy, especially against a dollar which is gathering a bit of momentum. Dollar seems to be getting stronger across the board; and I think a test of 1.38 area is what traders want; to see how it reacts at that area.

[DrForex]

Originally Posted by YES

Hi! First time poster but long time reader. Go easy on me! I'm a new poster but I'm a very seasoned trader. I'm getting sick and tired of this Eurozone contagion. One minute everything is dire, the next minute everybody seems to completely forget about the mess, yet in reality nothing has changed; just a mere focus!

With the SNB intervention and buying up of Euros, we have a strong player who will be underpinning the value of the Euro, therefore chances are we'll be ranging for a while from here.

SNB didn;t intervene in the traditional sense. The set a target "peg" rate said they will defend it with unlimited amounts (i.e. intervention to keep the minimum target of 1.20 in place).

This removes the CHF as a possible safe haven due to Euro zone risk concerns and it may just cause USD to become more of a safe haven with episodes of increased pigsty risk which may mean that the range we had for months despite all the noise may be broken to the south side.

Alternatively it will be JPY or maybe something else like NOK and SEK but if JPY the BOJ and MOF won't be happy, so I thought well what if the BOJ pegs the EURJPY to 120?

Then the problem of safe haven will be come the US' problem. They are currently winning the race to the bottom (weak currency to improve exports) hands down and it makes no one but them happy.

The Swiss (probably in consultation with Berlin) might just have put a whole new spin on the currency market ...

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[YES]

Originally Posted by DrForex

SNB didn;t intervene in the traditional sense. The set a target "peg" rate said they will defend it with unlimited amounts (i.e. intervention to keep the minimum target of 1.20 in place).

This removes the CHF as a possible safe haven due to Euro zone risk concerns and it may just cause USD to become more of a safe haven with episodes of increased pigsty risk which may mean that the range we had for months despite all the noise may be broken to the south side.

Alternatively it will be JPY or maybe something else like NOK and SEK but if JPY the BOJ and MOF won't be happy, so I thought well what if the BOJ pegs the EURJPY to 120?

Then the problem of safe haven will be come the US' problem. They are currently winning the race to the bottom (weak currency to improve exports) hands down and it makes no one but them happy.

The Swiss (probably in consultation with Berlin) might just have put a whole new spin on the currency market ...

You're definitely on it. In regards to the CHF not being a safe haven from now on, I can agree to a certain degree, however I do believe it will still be used as a safe haven; not so much as an instrument which will increase in value, but rather one which will hold it's value.

I don't think the CHF will DRASTICALLY devalue from now until Christmas. I think the USDCHF will be capped by 93.

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