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  #1  
Old 12th-August-2009, 15:58
mikkypro mikkypro is offline
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Smile fundamental analysis

pls what are the major news event that can move up to 70 pips and above apart
from nonfarm payroll ?
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  #2  
Old 14th-August-2009, 05:08
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Default Re: fundamental analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikkypro View Post
pls what are the major news event that can move up to 70 pips and above apart
from nonfarm payroll ?
We'll you can't really pinpoint a number of news releases with any sort of guarantee that they will be big. What makes news or data releases cause volatility is the surprise element in them.

I.e. the market's general expectations are not met or were completely wrong.

A case in point is the sleepy German and French GDP numbers, Thursday morning. Usually you wouldn't take notice of them, but not so this month, since everybody expected them so much to be just another negative number that they didn't watch and the numbers came out positive and there was a large reaction.

Also, this depends not only on the surprise factor of the release, but also on the value factor: I.e. where is the currency that is supposed to benefit on a theoretical level from this in the, long term in the short term in relation to other major currencies of which the country is theoretically now at some disadvantage to the one with the surprise release. (This can also be the other way round: there can be good and bad surprises)

Lastly about news releases: the dynamic of buy the rumour, sell the news is very important and happens a lot. The reaction of the market (violent or not) is opposite to the theoretical good / bad for the currency impact.

This is usually if the news was no surprise but enough anticipation built up and positions were overstretched to such an extent that traders, say, OK< that's it with this story, ain't gonna get more out of it, so lets book some profits and rush to the bar for a beer ... or something like that.

Building a trading strategy solely around data releases will be difficult and harder to maintain simply because the emergence of the necessary big releases are so random and also because many big moves take place in between data releases.

You will be much better of developing a trading strategy that incorporate positive data releases and shrug of negative data releases. (That is positive / negative vs your expectations and hopes or simpler put, your positioning.)
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  #3  
Old 28th-September-2012, 15:25
ramble on ramble on is offline
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Default Re: fundamental analysis

It seems that good data is negative for the corresponding currency these days and bad data is positive. Am I off base or just dumb money?
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  #4  
Old 30th-September-2012, 09:49
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Default Re: fundamental analysis

There isn't much to be learned from looking at the price moves of currencies after expected data releases.

There is usually a number of factors all working together to cause price changes in a currency and especially direct data releases aren't really a big factor.


Always keep in mind, prices can only move up or down therefore it is quite easy to spot some correlation in the direction of a price move and the outcome of a data release. But that correlation may not be more than just pure luck. And what correlated in an hour or two my not be so in 8 or 12 hours or a day or two.

Its not that tough to really use the fundamental drivers (of which economic data releases are but a small part) to determine currency direction but you really have to know where to look and you need to have a robust framework to account for different influences and "weighting" them effectively in terms of judging their impacts.

But if you want to be simplistic about it, its going to be better to use a coin toss to help you to decide "up" or "down".
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Old 4th-October-2012, 06:30
Harry14 Harry14 is offline
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Default Re: fundamental analysis

Hello Dr Forex,
what do you mean by"a coin toss",and how to find it exactly?Thank you and sorry for the question,i' m a newbie in this.
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  #6  
Old 4th-October-2012, 19:46
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Default Re: fundamental analysis

What I mean is that a data release can cause a currency like EURUSD to go up or down, depending if the data release was better or worse than expectations or better or worse than the previous data.

The chances for any of these are 50 / 50, i.e. purely random and can be determined by flipping a coin. heads = up, tails = down or the reverse.

The point is this. The chances that you are in the same position ( some right some wrong) by flipping a coin is as good as if you break your head with all sort of theories about if the data release will cause an up or down move.

So, why bother with all the trouble?

Just pick a direction, do a trade and THEN MANAGE THE TRADE TO A PROFIT.
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  #7  
Old 25th-April-2014, 06:57
alpherafinancialservices alpherafinancialservices is offline
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Default Re: fundamental analysis

A method of evaluating a security that entails attempting to measure its intrinsic value by examining related economic, financial and other qualitative and quantitative factors.
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  #8  
Old 29th-April-2014, 07:14
sohagm700 sohagm700 is offline
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Default Re: fundamental analysis

Economic and other factors relevant to qualitative and quantitative measure its intrinsic value by looking at the safety assessment method requires work.
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